2007a), “An examination of the reliability of prestigious scholarly journals: Evidence and implications for decision-makers

Scientific-funding bodies are increasingly under pressure to use journal rankings to measure research quality. Hiring and promotion committees routinely hear an equivalent argument: “this is important work because it is to be published in prestigious journal X”. But how persuasive is such an argument? This paper examines data on citations to articles published 25 years ago. It finds that it is better to write the best article in an issue of a medium-quality journal such as the Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics than all four of the worst-4 articles in an issue of an elite journal like the American Economic Review. Decision-makers need to understand this. Acknowledgments: For their helpful comments, I thank Danny Blanchflower, Gordon D.A. Brown